Mickey Kaus, who has a clearer view of immigration politics than the entire staff of the New York Times and his local LA Times combined, has been wondering if Speaker Pelosi will pass a Bush amnesty bill?

I’ve been trying to figure out if a Democrat-led House would actually pass some version of the Bush-McCain semi-amnesty immigration bill.

Everyone I talk to in Washington pooh-poohs the idea, arguing that Pelosi-led Democrats will never give Bush something he wants. I’d like to agree, but I’m skeptical. The only thing standing in the way of the Bush legislation was the Republican House, and if that’s gone … . Plus, there will be intense pressure from Latino groups for Democrats to take advantage of the rare welfare-reform-like opening in which a President is willing to defy his own party’s Congressional caucus. Not to mention all those new citizens for Dems to register. … V-DARE immigration-restrictionist [1] Steve Sailer is skeptical too, though he notes the possibility of a split among the Dems, with a significant Lou-Dobbsy “preserve unskilled wages” faction finally emerging. But Sailer leaves out the possibility of a McCain presidency–which would presumably mean at least four more years of White House pressure for “comprehensive” reform. … P.S.: Anyone who can help me think through this somewhat crucial question, [2] please e-mail. … 9:55 P.M.[[3] Slate.com, scroll down,]

Yes, [2] please e-mail Mickey if you have any ideas. It’s certainly a [4] puzzlement–Nancy Pelosi isn’t eager to pass any Bush bill, but Bush’s amnesty has always been a surrender to the Democrats, who want [5] to elect a new people. Would the Dems favor employers over workers?–wait, Pelosi [6] is an employer!

And throwing a McCain presidency into the equation doubles the puzzlement factor–Bush is putting his vision of amnesty ahead of party loyalty, not surprising, but McCain will be worse.

McCain will always put John McCain ahead of party loyalty–I mean, looking ahead to a McCain presidency, can you say for sure which party’s ticket he’ll be elected on?