4 March 2008

Why Did The Housing Bubble Inflate The Most In California?

Why did the housing bubble reach the most ridiculous heights in California? Here are several theories and I’d like to hear yours:

1. Californians are too stupid to do some arithmetic before signing gigantic contracts for many hundreds of thousands of dollars. (Sounds plausible to me.)

2. Immigration raises demand for housing and drives down wages, while stressing out public goods like schools and freeways.

3. Momentum — Housing prices had been rising most years since 1975, so it just had to continue.

4. Lack of land — California! is essentially the Mediterranean climate zone, a strip 500 miles long and about 20 miles wide, running from the beach to the first line of mountains in Southern California and the first valley in from the foggy beach north of Santa Cruz. The rest of California is either beautiful but too vertical to be habitable, or is Odessa (TX) West, but with lousier high school football. Lots of people bought houses in Bakersfield figuring they had to go up up up because … they’re in California! No, they’re in Bakersfield. If you saw “There Will Be Blood,” you’ll see the sharp difference between the miserable oil town near Bakersfield and the exquisite coast where the pipeline winds up. The oil town was actually filmed in West Texas, but it looks a lot like the Central Valley anyway.

5. Zoning / Environmentalism — The land everybody wants is controlled by the California Coastal Commission, so much of it, especially the prime turf between Santa Barbara and Hearst Castle, is unoccupied except by cows.
6. What’s your theory?

New H-1B Deal Being Hatched By Industry, Hispanics, And Congresss

Last week I sent out a newsletter warning that a deal is being worked out on Capitol Hill to pass a large H-1B increase. Since then, things have been silent in the media but that doesn’t change the fact that there is still a substantial effort to pass through an increase. Unfortunately there is only circumstantial evidence that a deal is being negotiated but I thought I would share with you what I know so far.

Bill Gates is going back to Washington DC next week to lobby for an increase. If there wasn’t a deal before, there will be when Gates throws his money around. His timing can’t be coincidence–right after the big primary and just about when Congress critters go groveling for campaign money for the next election.

I have communicated with Roy Beck at NumbersUSA and he assured me that the threat of an H-1B increase is very, very real.

  • Compete America sent a letter to Congress urging them to “consider a package of urgent reforms”. Compete America is leaving it to the public to guess what’s in the care package but one thing for sure is that it will have a demand for an increase in the H-1B cap.
  • On February 29, U.S. Representative Joe Baca (D-CA) sent legislation to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute. Like Compete America, he said he isn’t going to allow us to see what’s proposed but he gave a few cutesy riddles like for instance: “It will involve visas, but it won’t be a path towards amnesty, it will not be amnesty.” Baca had a rather exclusive attitude about sharing the documents — he said if you aren’t in the Hispanic Caucus you can’t see them!
  • Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and other House Democratic leaders want to poison the enforcement only SAVE ACT by attaching an amnesty amendment to it. There are other things besides amnesty but she won’t say what. Do you see a pattern of secrecy developing here?
  • There will soon be a mad scramble to secure H-1B visas. They will run out of visas very quickly, and employers are screaming bloody murder about it. They want more visas and they are letting that be known very forcefully.

See stories here:From industry group Compete America - The Alliance for a Competitive Workforce

Letter To Congress

In summary, we are very concerned about the potential for Congress to consider an enforcement-only immigration bill and instead urge the House to consider a package of urgent reforms that will help the U.S. remain the world leader in innovation and serve our economic, national security and other core national interests. Sincerely,
Robert Hoffman
Co-Chair, Compete America
[More]

New Immigration Reform Proposal Being Prepared

Would make illegal immigrants legal residents, supporters say it is ‘not amnesty’

By Jim Forsyth Friday, February 29, 2008

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus says it is prepared to introduce a new immigration reform bill later this year which will confront Congress with the tricky issue of legal residency for 12 million undocumented workers in the middle of an election season, 1200 WOAI news reports.

U.S. Representative Joe Baca (D-California), the First Vice President of the CHC, revealed the measure today as he attended a meeting of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute in San Antonio.

‘We will be coming out specifically with the legislature later on,” Baca said. “It will not be comprehensive in nature, but it would include the 12 t0 14 million people who are here in the United States, it will address those individuals working in agriculture, and it will address the DREAM Act,” Baca said.[More]

Pro-illegal immigration Dems undermining SAVE Act, says bill sponsor Jim Brown

OneNewsNow - 2/29/2008 9:00:00 AM

House Democratic leaders are working to derail a bipartisan bill that would beef up border security, crack down on illegal aliens and employers who hire them, and reject amnesty.

Representatives Brian Bilbray (R-California) and Heath Shuler (D-North Carolina) are seeking an up-or-down vote on their bipartisan Secure America through Verification and Enforcement (SAVE) Act, which has 47 Democrat and 89 Republican co-sponsors. They need the need the signatures of 218 House members on a discharge petition for the vote to occur. The Washington Times reports that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and other House Democratic leaders want to poison the bill by attaching an amnesty amendment to it.

Bilbray points out the amendment proposed by Representative Joe Baca (D-California) would give illegal aliens a visa for five years so that during that time period Congress could work on passing legislation that would grant citizenship, voting rights, and welfare benefits to the illegal alien population.

“We’re talking about 20 million people who’ve broken the law being rewarded for their illegal activity,” he says, “but more importantly, Washington officially announcing to the world that we will reward those who come to our country illegally.”[More]

Mickey Kaus Risks Bad Karma–Gains Enlightenment

Mickey Kaus links to Peter Brimelow’s piece on William F. Buckley–he writes:

“And now for another view of William F. Buckley: Since Buckley can no longer defend himself, it seems bad karma to even link. But try to stop reading it. The ruptures on the Right over immigration long predate John McCain, it turns out. … 12:45 A.M.”

Scroll down or scroll up–I wish Mickey Kaus would provide one permalink per item, but that’s a minor annoyance. Buckley, of course, was the man who purged Peter Brimelow from National Review, so the question of him defending himself is kind of meaningless. (And we criticized him while he was alive, of course.)

Buckley’s own feelings about this kind of thing can be inferred, not only from his savage non-eulogy of Murray Rothbard, but from these two articles culled from his Hillsdale Archive, by means, if you’re interested, of a search on the words “nisi bonum.”– R.I.P., Henry Wallace, 11/23/1965 [PDF] and Bless ‘Em All, 04/11/1972 [PDF].

Buckley was right about Henry Wallace, in that the evil that Henry Wallace did lived after him, and Peter Brimelow is right about Buckley, who not only started the “modern conservative movement,” but whose legacy includes thereally modern conservative movementrepresented by today’s National Review and the Weekly Standard.

Rob Sanchez On George Putnam 1:05 PST, 4:05 EST

I will be on the legendary George Putnam talk-radio show today. My start time will be 1:05 PM PST., which is slightly less than one hour after this newsletter is being sent out. Sorry about the short notice!

Putnam’s show is online in streaming audio which can be listened to by going to this page: http://www.crni.net/ To listen to the show, click the box on the right where it says “now playing, listen live” “CRN1″

There is a toll free call-in telephone number if you want to chat with us: 1-800-336-2225

Moving WFB Left, Ex Post Facto

In NRO, Peter Robinson relates that he got WFB on Uncommon Knowledge with Christopher Hitchens and made him admit that the Vietnam War was a bad idea. (Made Buckley admit it, I mean. Hitchens still thinks the Vietnam War was a good idea…for Ho Chi Minh.)

Then he quotes WFB admitting he was wrong about the early civil rights movement:

BUCKLEY Well, we opposed that act on the grounds that it asked for constitutional liberties, in an age in which constitutional liberties were being mobilized for this cause and that, rather with abandon. And we saw them addressing a situation which we doubted could be addressed in that way, but I have a very full perspective on life in the South in those days, and it was life that simply assumed that whatever headway blacks made would be made within their own culture and that federal interposition would be simply a renewal of the Civil War. That was wrong. But that deception was very, very engaging.

Reading that, I thought that all they’d have to do to make Buckley into Hubert Horatio Humphrey posthumously would be to have him apologize for “McCarthyism”, but I turned to David Frum’s diary and he reminded me that WFB had actually done this himself::

Buckley the Novelist

The finest of them is The Redhunter – a book that also offers the closest thing to the self-assessment of the young Buckley by the elder Buckley.

Colombian Rock Star Juanes to Rock the (Hispanic) Vote

Colombian rock star Juan Esteban Aristizabal, more popularly known as Juanes (more recent photo here) is kicking off his big “La Vida” U.S. tour.
As part of the tour, and in collaboration with MTV’s “Rock the Vote”, Juanes plans to encourage young Hispanics to register to vote. As reported in Mexico’s Universal:

The Colombian singer-songwriter Juanes will invite young Hispanics of the United States to register to vote in the presidential elections…

At Juanes concerts (beginning with the tour’s big opener at Madison Square Garden on March 6th) the Colombian citizen rock star will encourage young Hispanic (presumably American citizen) Hispanic concert-goers to register.
The article describes the Hispanic vote situation thusly:

Although Hispanics number more than 43 million and are the principal ethnic minority in the United States, only a few million are registered to vote, because many are not American citizens, or still aren’t old enough or are indocumentados . Nevertheless, American politicians are recognizing the importance of the Latino vote…

Nowadays, it’s so easy to register to vote, that anybody who doesn’t do so is probably just not interested. It’s really better that the uninterested don’t vote anyway. So whenever you hear about the need to register Hispanics, it’s from groups who suppose their own interests would be furthered if more Hispanics register.
Many Latin Americans (and not only Mexicans) see their interests furthered by Hispanic influence within the United States.
So here we have a Colombian citizen getting ready to travel about the country promoting Hispanic youth to register to vote in the United States.
Juanes is scheduled to perform in New York City, Atlantic City, San Juan (Puerto Rico), Washington D.C., Rosemont (Illinois), San Antonio,Laredo, Duluth (Georgia), Miami, Orlando, Houston, Dallas, Hidalgo(Texas), El Paso, Denver, Tucson, Fresno, Las Vegas, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Jose.

“They Just Come Here To Work.” Uh Huh.

We hear that claim a lot, that illegal aliens “just come here to work” and that “our economy would collapse without them.” But even overlooking the cohort among them who clearly come to enhance their own situations by wreaking mayhem on us (be sure your sound is on for that video), it’s not universally true.

Consider the experiences of a rancher near Naco, AZ, as recounted in a Reuters article about our fabled border fence [Despite fences, immigrants still broach U.S. border , by Tim Gaynor, March 3, 2008:

Local rancher John Ladd said some 300 to 400 illegal immigrants continue to clamber over the new steel barrier flanking the southern reach of his farm for some 10 miles (16 km) each day, as an effective combination of technologies and manpower remains elusive.

“It’s so easy to climb that I’ve seen two women that were pregnant, I’ve seen several women in their sixties and all kinds of kids between five and ten years old climb over it,” Ladd said, as he leaned on a section of the steel mesh fence that stretches like a rusted veil westward toward the rugged Huachuca Mountains.

Yep, it’s those uneducated women in their sixties, uneducated pregnant women, and ten-year-old kids who grace us with their (probably non-English-speaking) presence that make the U.S. the economic powerhouse that it is.

More East African Fun In The Sun

East Africa keeps popping up in the news:

 

Americans Fire Missiles Into Somalia

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and ERIC SCHMITT

NAIROBI, Kenya — American naval forces fired missiles into southern Somalia on Monday, aiming at what the Defense Department called terrorist targets.

Residents reached by telephone said the only casualties were three wounded civilians, three dead cows, one dead donkey and a partly destroyed house.

Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman in Washington, said the target was a “known Al Qaeda terrorist.”

The missile strike was aimed at Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a Kenyan born in 1979 who is wanted by the F.B.I. for questioning in the nearly simultaneous attacks on a hotel in Mombasa, Kenya, and on an Israeli airliner taking off from there, in 2002, said three American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the strike or its details.

One American military official said the naval attack on Monday was carried out with at least two Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from a submarine. The official said the missiles were believed to have hit their targets. Witnesses on the ground, though, described the attack differently.

“I did not know from where they were launched, but what I know is that they hit a house in this town,” said Muhammad Amin Abdullahi Osman, a resident of Dhobley, a small town in southern Somalia near the Kenyan border.

Mr. Muhammad said two missiles slammed into the house around 3:30 a.m.

Monday’s attack was not the first time that American forces had fired missiles into Somalia or used airstrikes in pursuit of what the Pentagon has called terrorist operatives in the country. They did so at least three times last year.

Dhobley lies in the growing swath of southern Somalia that seems to be falling under the control of the country’s Islamist movement once again. The Islamists rose to power in 2006 and brought a degree of law and order to Somalia for the first time since the central government collapsed in 1991.

But they were driven out of Somalia in late 2006 and early 2007 by a joint Ethiopian-American offensive. The Americans and Ethiopians said Somalia’s Islamists were harboring Qaeda terrorists, including men connected to the 1998 embassy bombings. Thousands of Ethiopian troops poured across the border, backed up by American warplanes and American intelligence. The Islamist movement then went underground.

But in the past several months, the Islamists seem to be making a comeback, taking over towns in southern Somalia, including Dhobley, and inflicting a steady stream of casualties on Ethiopian forces with suicide bombs and hit-and-run attacks. Efforts by foreign diplomats and the United Nations to broker a truce have failed, and concerns are rising that Somalia could be headed toward another war-induced famine like the one it suffered in the early 1990s.

This kind of (hopefully) carefully-targeted missile strike seems like a better idea than our last big idea: sponsoring the conquest of the furious denizens of Somalia by their ancient Abyssinian enemies. I saw “Black Hawk Down,” and the Somalis really didn’t look like the kind of people who would passively put up with foreign occupation.

I call the Ethiopian invasion our Prester John strategy because it’s a revival of the grand strategy of Christendom in the post-Crusades era: to form an alliance with the Christian king of Abyssinia, Priest John, to open a second front against the Musselmen. Negotiations went on for centuries — we have a record from 1306 in Italy of a diplomatic delegation of 30 Ethiopians on their way to see the Pope; and the king of Portugal sent a delegation to Ethiopia in the 1520s that spent six years there and returned with a letter from Prester John asking for technological assistance to enable him to make war more effectively on the Muslims.

Allying with Ethiopia was a cool-sounding idea back then, too, but it proved pointless in the end, and I suspect our latest alliance will too.