30 September 2008

Quote Of The Day–”A Man That Breeds A Family …”

This is something I found while I was looking for the original of Edmund Burke’s quote about  loving “the little platoon we belong to in society,” recently quoted by Matthew Richer in his Rhode Island piece:

“A man that breeds a family without competent means of maintenance, encumbers other men with his children.” Edmund Burke, Speech on the Repeal of the Marriage Act, 1781

As part of the savage personal attacks on Sarah Palin and her family,  normal people have been asked by what Mark Shea calls “freakish enemies of the normal” why we approve of the Governor of Alaska having five children, while worrying about Hispanic demographics, and why we don’t have any particular criticism of the pregnancy of Governor Palin’s daughter Bristol, who is engaged to be married (to a young man who can presumably support her.)

Leon Wieseltier wrote that according to Christian conservatives

The fecundity of Bristol Palin is a windfall for Jesus, but the fecundity of black girls is the doom of the republic.[TNR, September 24, 2008]

He didn’t actually cite anyone who actually felt like that, but for the benefit of Mr. Wieseltier, the differences are the difference between married and unmarried, and the difference between “self-supporting” and “a charge on the public purse.”


Brimelow On The Bailout, The Patriot Party, And The ‘87 Crash

As in the 2006-2007 Amnesty Wars, the House Republicans yesterday heroically confirmed their emergence as America’s Third Party–the Patriot Party–by rejecting the bipartisan bailout Bill. The resulting caterwauling and the simultaneous stock market crash caused me to look up something I wrote for a British, non-financial audience, after the Crash of 1987–almost exactly 21 (aargh!) years ago.

Rereading it, I am stuck by the similarities with the current situation. Then, as now, there was real panic and the Democrats were using the opportunity to advance their long-standing agenda–then more taxes, now more regulation. Then, as now, the panic took no account of the enormous gains the market had made in the preceding few years. Then, as now, there was little sense that the market, and the economy, can absorb tremendous blows. (As it did).

Unlike in 1987, the stock market has been arguably overvalued and trying to break for a couple of years–anyone who is interested in this mundane subject can read my MarketWatch columns here. Bottom line (as we say in the trade): the House Republicans shouldn’t be blamed for yesterday’s rout, any more than they should be credited for today’s rally. (But somehow no-one seems to be doing that).

Making A Meal Of The Market, By Peter Brimelow, The Times [London, England], October 31, 1987)

NEW YORK—The lot of a financial journalist is not, totally, a happy one. The subject is inherently intractable. None of your colleagues want to read about it. Your audience of specialized business troglodytes usually know more than you do. They don’t hesitate to say so.

How very different is the professional life of the political writer—courted by hostesses, fawned on by elected officials and, indeed, actually more influential than most of them. Adding insult to injury, those of us labouring in the financial field periodically look up from our tasks to find our humble corner invaded by these glamorous creatures. They grandly strikes poses amid the potatoes and trample down the turnips before departing amid cries of self congratulation on there versatility.

In the second week since the Wall Street crash, ["Black Monday," October 19, 1987] this posturing is all-pervasive. The intrusion is all the more noticeable in America because the financial and political capitals are so far apart. New York and Washington are rarely talking about the same thing—the Iran-Contra agitation excited little comment here—and it is therefore peculiarly irritating when the latter starts to tell the former what financial market movements really mean. Particularly when this hidden meaning turns out to be something the Washington establishment and its media allies have been proclaiming for a decade—the imperative need to raise taxes.

My own conclusion, after years of writing about the stock market, is that no one knows what its tergiversations signify. In a general sense, the market reflects economic prospects, but its particular fluctuations are too wild to be satisfactorily related to anything other than themselves. Even its long-term movements can be anomalous—no one has explained why the American stock markets lagged behind inflation throughout the 1970s before exploding upward in 1982.

Listening to what active traders say is the most useless tactic of all. Notwithstanding their professional assurance, traders live by their viscera, not their intellect, and will abandon even the most fervently offered rationalization at the drop of a price. In general, run quickly, wrote Bernard Baruch, one of the greatest of them, in a memorandum to himself about his experiences in the 1929 crash. It applies to ideas as well as investments.

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Video: Burning Down the House (Rove-Bush Style)

A reader has put together a helpful video mashup of George W. Bush’s wonderful 2002 speeches on lowering mortgage credit standards for minorities along with snark comments.

The Two Problems

Let me suggest a conceptual distinction to make things clearer.

Economically, we face two related but distinguishable problems.

First, due to post-modern financial engineering, Wall Street has created vast upside down pyramids of leverage that are so intricate that nobody is sure what financial instruments are worth anymore, with frightening implications for the whole system, which could cause a lock-up of all lending.

Second, we have a fundamental problem, which is that a lot of those highly leveraged complex instruments really aren’t worth much because the basic assets they balance on top of have declined sharply in value. Essentially, in this decade home prices (primarily in a small number of states, most notably California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida) inflated to absurd levels, generating trillions in new wealth on paper. Those gains are now gone and won’t come back for decades because they were always stupid: there was never enough human capital in California to earn enough money to pay for those houses.

Now, that doesn’t sound so bad: easy come, easy go. For some homeowners in California, the nominal doubling and subsequent halving of their home values had no effect on their economic behavior. My family took our vacation in a tent in pre-bubble 2001 and again in bubblicious 2007. Unfortunately, lots of Californians spent their increased paper wealth on crud, like fancy rims. (And the salesmen who sold the rims purchased fancier tattoos. And the tattoo artists …) And now the economy and standards of living are going to have to contract as this orgy of real world spending of paper profits is slowly paid off.

Don’t Support Your Local College!

Rob Oden, the current president of Carleton College, my undergraduate alma mater, recently emailed the college’s diversity news to all of us alumni. Here is the core of his glad tidings:

Our campus community has been working on initiatives and challenges related to diversity for some time, with alumni input. In 2006, Carleton’s Diversity Initiative Group (DIG) composed a Diversity Statement for the College, a statement those of us on DIG knew we needed in order to shape a plan to most proactively address the diversity-related challenges and opportunities on our campus. Last year, DIG decided that before we determined where we needed to go, we needed to learn where we are. This led to the hiring of diversity consultant Professor Sue Rankin, who worked with DIG to create and administer a survey to inform us on where we are today.

When I was a student there, such a statement would have been classified as “fatuous blather,” but I understand that for today’s Carleton, this is serious business. Indeed, googling the college’s website yields 3,450 hits for “diversity.”

I wrote back to Oden (addressing him by his first name, since if he’s my elder, it can’t be by much):

Rob,

The content of your message is a perfect example of why I stopped contributing to Carleton about seven years ago. I’d previously stopped contributing to Grinnell for the exact same reason. This was after I’d steadily contributed — at non-trivial levels — to both colleges ever since my graduation. (I attended Grinnell for a year and a half before transferring to Carleton and graduating, on-time, in 1970. I loved both places. Now I would steer prospective students away from both.)

Later, I similarly cut off the University of Chicago, my graduate school (PhD, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1978), when they submitted an amicus brief to the U.S. Supreme Court on behalf of never-ending affirmative action in the University of Michigan cases of 2003.

These days, I contribute, instead, to Hillsdale, although I’ve never even been near its campus. I contribute to Hillsdale because their focus is on educating about Western civilization — and for its survival. Carleton and Grinnell, in contrast, are founts of diversity-babble, which really amounts to a world view based on the devil theory of white people. In doing this, Carleton and Grinnell (along with the thousands of others peas-in-a-pod that make up 99.9% of the contemporary American academy) are busily helping destroy the society and culture that made their existences possible.

Given the seemingly unreflective content of your message to us alums, this may be a forlorn gesture. But I place before you a brief piece by Thomas Sowell, one of our towering public intellectuals (and, in case you didn’t know this, he’s black) and a longer one by Jared Taylor (less known than Sowell) that both speak to this diversity mania in which you’ve allowed yourself to be enmeshed.

Read those and then let’s talk.

So far Oden is keeping his counsel. But in the meantime I’ve checked out the diversity statistics for Grinnell (2,760 hits) and Hillsdale (151 hits).

Besides their relative scarcity, it’s clear that many of those Hillsdale hits are for diversity-skepticism and, thus, quite in keeping with a paragraph out of a recent fund-raising letter to us donors from college president (and Claremont Institute co-founder) Larry Arnn:

Rest assured that we do not follow the trends promoted by the Department of Education (…). We do not teach multiculturalism or global citizenship. Hillsdale College teaches the classical liberal arts. We require students to enroll in a core grouping of courses that covers the Great Books, Western civilization, American heritage, the natural sciences, and the U.S. Constitution. Hillsdale is one of the few non-military colleges in the nation to require a semester of study on the Constitution.

How does Hillsdale escape ethnic bean-counting and the concomitant diversity mania? Along with a few other intrepid colleges, Hillsdale accepts no federal or state funds — no research or facilities grants, no student scholarships or loans, no nothing — which explains Arnn’s reference above to the federal Department of Education. As a result, the college has to raise the scratch to cover all its operating needs, all on its own. Presumably there are many “friends of Hillsdale” like myself — “refugee” alumni from other colleges — who help out a little or a lot. (The only way the feds can get back at Hillsdale would be to make donations non tax-deductible. I know this is a possibility that concerns the college.)

Whether or not you throw over your own alma mater and support Hillsdale, by all means sign up for a free subscription (by mail) to Imprimis, the monthly digest of speeches delivered in the course of the college’s various programs. For samples of what you’ll find in Imprimis, check out a couple of archived issues on Hillsdale’s website. Here’s John Marini, writing about Roosevelt’s or Reagan’s America? A Time for Choosing, and here’s Edward Erler on Birthright Citizenship and Dual Citizenship: Harbingers of Administrative Tyranny.

29 September 2008

Happy Michaelmas! (And Rosh Hashanah)

In the middle of the financial meltdown, Congress is taking Tuesday off, because it’s Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. So are a surprising number of American schools. If the same dynamic were at work that drives the War Against Christmas, everyone would also be carefully wishing each other Happy Michaelmas (technically, the Feast of Michael and all Angels), the nearest major Christian celebration, on September 29, just like Hanukkah at Christmas.

So - A happy Michaelmas, and Rosh Hashanah, to all our readers. We mean it.

Political Leaders Are Not Interested in Gathering Illegal Alien Crime Data

This article considers the sometimes confusing information about the prevalence of illegal alien criminals: [Lack of data for tracking illegal immigrant crimes, KTAR 92.3 Radio, Phoenix AZ, September 27, 2008].

You’ve heard it from pundits and read it online: Illegal immigrants are clogging our legal system. They may come with the dreams of work and a better life, but they bring increased crime and strife.

But it’s anyone’s guess how many illegal immigrants enter the justice system, and how much it costs taxpayers. Neither the state nor the federal courts formally keep track.

“The data (are) terrible, and lead to entirely different conclusions,” said Steven Camarota, of the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports tighter immigration controls. “No one has made it a priority. No one has ever wanted to know.”

Amen. The authorities don’t want the citizenry to know how badly they are failing in the basic responsibility of public safety.

It doesn’t take much investigation into the topic of illegal alien crime to find that the available information is not adequate.

That fact alone is an answer to the question. The political and business elites do not want the advantage (to them) of open borders to be ended merely because of a little associated violent crime. It’s an acceptable price of doing business for elites that a few thousand citizens are killed each year as a result of many criminals entering along with the exploitable workers.

America now has two systems of justice–one for citizens, who are required to obey the law, and a more permissive standrd for illegal aliens, who are routinely excused from criminal statutes.

The most extreme examples are the foreign criminals with long rap sheets who are released rather than deported or prosecuted. Unfortunately, these instances of politically correct policing are quite common, such as the murder of Jamiel Shaw II, who was killed by a known MS-13 gangster who was released from a Los Angeles jail despite his illegal alien status. Further north, San Franciscans were shocked to learn that a previously arrested illegal alien gangster took advantage of the city’s sanctuary policy to live freely and kill Tony Bologna and his two sons.

Sadly, there are many more crimes like these that could have been prevented if the government did its job.

Do We Live In A Republic After All?

Invited members of the Great and the Good had spent a few days in a conference room, where they decided to give the Treasury Secretary power to give away $700 billion dollars.

But then, this quaint body called the House of Representatives (which I believe is mentioned somewhere in the Constitution) had the gall to vote against it, 228-205. Don’t these mere elected representatives understand how many gallons of diet soft drinks the self-appointed authors of the bailout had consumed over the last two weeks?

Speculators in Exurban Bubble Markets

With the financial crisis, we might start seeing a few more defaults in the Greenwich, CN area (we can all hope, can’t we?), but so far, the defaults have tended to hit very marginal areas hardest. Here in California, people in Santa Monica aren’t defaulting, it’s the poor bastards out in the high desert or even down in Bakersfield in the hot, smoggy Central Valley.

In these godforsaken places, all sorts of mini-McMansions have gone up on the theory, apparently, that, hey, they’re in California! Every peon in Guatelombia has seen Baywatch and wants to move to California (even though Lancaster, CA looks more like Death Valley Days). So prices can only go up, up, up!

Imagine you’re a homeowner in Santa Clarita in 2005, now a nice established exurb 35 miles north of LA. You bought your house in 1995 at the bottom of the market for $175,000 and a decade later it’s worth three or four times that much. You can take cash out with home equity loans, so why not find an investment property?

Of course, you’ll have to look farther out, deeper into the dusty high desert, like in Lancaster, 70 miles from downtown LA. They’re building many new 3,000 s.f. homes on culdesacs with all the amenities. You should buy one up now and resell it when new refugees from the LA Unified School District arrive.

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Paul Newman, RIP

Rather than mention all the great performances Paul Newman gave, I’d like to recall a role he chose to give up.

One of my favorite movies is John Huston’s version of Kipling’s short story “The Man Who Would Be King.” It was in Development Hell for 20 years, going through multiple screenplays. Originally, Huston was going to direct Clark Gable as the majestic Daniel Dravot and Humphrey Bogart as the sly Peachy Carnehan. I’m not sure if the stars were going to attempt English accents, or if they were going to be turned into Canadians in the Indian Army, or what.

Then Bogie died. After his comeback in the “Misfits,” Gable wanted to revive the project, so Huston was looking for a new co-star, when Gable had a heart attack and died. In the 1970s, the project got relaunched, with Paul Newman and Robert Redford attached. (I’m guessing with Redford as Danny and Newman as Peachy, but Newman being older and almost as handsome as Redford would have made casting more flexible and/or confusing than with Gable and Bogart, where there was never a doubt who would play which role.) John Huston and his secretary, Gladys Hill, wrote a great fourth script.

From director John Huston’s autobiography “An Open Book:

“I sent the new screenplay to Paul, who called me immediately and said it was one of the best things he’d read, but he’d had second thoughts about the casting of the leads, which at that point were to have been himself and Robert Redford. He said they should be played by two Englishmen. Paul, speaking not as an actor but as someone interested in the improvement of the breed, cast it right there: “For Christ’s sake, John, get Connery and Caine!”

Screenwriter William Goldman’s book Adventures in the Screen Trade includes a fair amount of malicious gossip about the swelled heads of big stars he’d written for, such as Newman and Dustin Hoffman, but he only had praise for Newman as a human being.