8 September 2008

A Small McCain Error…And A Bigger One

From the McCain acceptance speech, a line that Peter Brimelow thinks may presage a McCain betrayal:


In this country, we believe everyone has something to contribute and deserves the opportunity to reach their God-given potential, from the boy whose descendants arrived on the Mayflower to the Latina daughter of migrant workers. We’re all God’s children, and we’re all Americans.[Text: McCain's speech - International Herald Tribune]

The first error is that he says “descendants” when he means “ancestors.” The people whose descendants sailed on the Mayflower were living in the 16th century. The second point is that there’s only about a fifty-fifty chance that the “Latina daughter” is an American citizen–many illegal immigrants bring their children with them illegally. The famous Immigrants Crossing sign shows two migrant workers dragging child with pigtails across a highway.

That poor girl is not an American, and it’s wrong of McCain to say so,. It’s also wrong for him to encourage her parents to bring her to America illegally.

Inequality Of Spending

The news that the government has officially taken over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reminds me of a popular argument in recent years among libertarian pundits and economists, to the effect that:

“Well, sure, inequality in income and, especially, in wealth is increasing … But, that’s okay because inequality in spending isn’t up as much. Have you seen the rims these bozos are buying these days?”

Okay, but how exactly was increased spending on flat-lining earning power ever supposed to be sustainable?

This was all just a new wrinkle on the now-discredited wage inflation policies seen in countries like Argentina, Italy, and Britain in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, the workers would complain to the government that their wages were too low, so the government would order the employers to pay them more. The employers would then complain to the government that they couldn’t pay their loan obligations, so the government would print up more money. The resulting inflation would make financial and business planning harder, discouraging saving and long-term investments, so the economy would stagnate.

One lesson the elites took away from this sorry episode was that rising wages were A Bad Thing. Thus, today you constantly read newspaper articles that simply assume that illegal immigration keeping wages down is A Good Thing.

Yet, the fundamental problem remained. So, over the last two decades, a new, unspoken solution policy evolved:

1. Keep wages down.

But if labor can’t afford to buy more stuff, they’ll complain, and capital will suffer as well because they can’t sell their goods to labor. So, the second part of the strategy was:

2. Keep spending up.

How can you do this? Easy — get lots of people to borrow more! Cut out the middleman (the employer). Instead of leaning on the employers to pay higher wages, the government has been leaning on lenders to lend more money to homebuyers and homeowners. And, this is politically easy to achieve, because while employers begrudge paying wages, lenders like to lend. It’s what they do! It’s easy and fun to create money through fractional reserve banking by just assuming that you are more likely to get paid back than you actually are.

Of course, eventually this house of cards had to come down, but the taxpayers and savers will be there to bail the lenders, borrowers, and spenders out.

August Job Collapse–And American Worker Displacement Resumes

The August jobs report, released on Friday, delivered startling bad news about economic conditions. Non-farm payrolls declined by 84,000 positions, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.1%–the highest in nearly five years.

In the blink of an eye, the prospect of an end-of-year rebound collapsed, and the policy chatter changed from interest rates possibly moving higher to the necessity for further easing in rates.

As usual, little attention was given to the “other” set of employment figures, those generated by household survey. Good thing, since that would have ruined the weekend entirely.

Household employment fell by a whopping 342,000 jobs, or more than four times the drop in payroll employment.

More important from our perspective, the Hispanic workforce, comprised disproportionately of legal and illegal immigrants, enjoyed an increase in jobs despite the general bloodbath.  Here are employment figures for August:

  • Total employment: -342,000  (-0.235 percent)
  • Non-Hispanic: -359,000 (-0.286 percent)
  • Hispanic: +17,000 (+0.083 percent)

For some months, we have noted what seemed to be a reversal in American worker displacement. For 3 of the past 8 months, Hispanics have lost ground relative to non-Hispanics - a phenomenon we’ve attributed to stricter workplace enforcement of immigration laws and a weaker job market.

But after eight straight months of national job loss, the displacement of American workers is still evident. Here are year-to-date (January through August) employment figures:

  • Total employment: -771,000  (-0.53 percent)
  • Non-Hispanic: -903,000 (-0.72 percent)
  • Hispanic: +132,000 (+0.65 percent)

In other words, nearly one million (903,000) non-Hispanics have lost jobs this year -and many of them were supplanted by the 132,000 Hispanic (= immigrant) workers who found gainful employment over this period.

The trends in Hispanic and non-Hispanic employment since the start of the Bush Administration are tracked the following graphic:

August 2008 VDAWDI

Since January 2001 Hispanic employment has increased by 4,343,000, or 26.9 percent, while non-Hispanic employment grew by 3,367,000, or 2.8 percent.

The ratio of Hispanic to non-Hispanic job indexes, which we call VDAWDI (the V-Dare.com American Worker Displacement Index), rose to 123.5 in August from 123.0 in July.

The record high for VDAWDI, 124.1, was recorded in August 2007 - the month that U.S. economic growth started to decelerate.

Bob Barr and Immigration

Libertarian party candidate Bob Barr has an op-ed in the Washington Times, entitled Border First. [September 6, 2008]

Barr starts his op-ed with the tired old “nation of immigrants” line, There are bad proposals, but good ones too. Here are some excerpts:

America is a nation of immigrants, but the process of assimilation has broken down. Although immigration provides economic benefits, it also affects America´s cultural and national identity. Immigration reform must begin with securing the border. Our primary obligation is to protect American citizens.

It’s good Barr is talking about the country’s cultural and national identity. However, I wish someone would educate him about economic problems caused by mass immigration.

..the U.S. government has lost control of its borders.

Right, but look what he says after that:

While too many people come illegally, we accept too few legal immigrants.

No we don’t Bob. We should reduce legal immigration.

On the good side though, Barr knows about Plyer v. Doe:

…a mistaken 1982 Supreme Court case, Plyer v. Doe held that states and localities must pay to school the children of illegal residents. Those who drafted the 14th Amendment would have been astonished by this conclusion.

And, Barr knows about the emergency room problem:

Federal law requires hospitals to provide care irrespective of ability to pay, so emergency rooms across the American southwest are filled with Mexican citizens. Pregnant women come to have their children born in American hospitals. Both California and Texas spend substantially more than $1 billion a year to treat illegal aliens.

Barr is open to plugging the anchor baby loophole, which absolutely must be done as soon as possible:

We must reconsider birthright citizenship. The result of another poor interpretation of the 14th Amendment, citizenship is conferred upon anyone born in the U.S., even if here illegally. This peculiar policy demands no connection or commitment to America in exchange for citizenship. Congress should address the issue, though a constitutional change might be necessary. Americans should choose upon whom they want to confer citizenship, rather than have the choice determined by an accident of birth.

Also, Barr favors Official English:

Another imperative is to strengthen the forces of assimilation. For instance, English should be America´s official language. It is not the government´s business what people speak at home. But government business should be transacted English. Congress should scrap bilingual ballots. American citizens should learn enough English to vote. A common language is an important national foundation.

That’s good, but not this part:

While sharply reducing the number of people who enter the U.S. illegally, we should expand legal immigration, especially of those who would contribute the most to America.

No Bob no, we shouldn’t expand legal immigration . But this part is real good:

Finally, there should be no amnesty.

But then there’s this part:

While there should be no intrusive round-up of illegal immigrants, anyone hoping to get a green card or citizenship should have to register and get in line with everyone else.

So what’s wrong with “intrusive” round-ups of illegal aliens?

To summarize, Bob Barr has some some good proposals and some bad ones. You might consider writing the candidate here to educate him further.

Success in Oklahoma; Disdain from The Columbus Dispatch

An appalled article in The Columbus Dispatch delivers some positive news for once: Oklahoma’s HB 1804, designed to impede the presence of illegal immigrants in the state, is working.

Estimates indicate that up to 25,000 Latinos have fled Tulsa County, and an unknown number have left the state since Democratic Gov. Brad Henry signed one of the nation’s toughest immigration laws in May 2007. (Mississippi enacted a similar law in July.)

Latinos flee Oklahoma; new law hits others, too
Sunday, September 7, 2008 1:34 AM By Todd Jones

(Our Allan Wall, who is from Oklahoma, reported as early as March that a 100,000 illegals had left.)

Ohio is apparently considering a similar law, and the hostile journalist leaves no tear duct unmoblilized:

Latino advocates, however, describe a subsequent climate of fear and racism that’s as palpable as the relentless wind that sweeps across this heartland state.

He eagerly seizes on unfashionable (if probably correct) thoughts to smear the supporters of HB 1804:

A woman said that immigrants are “having children, children and children. We Caucasians are not. Pretty soon, they’re going to outnumber us. That’s what they’re working on.”

But he has to report, of the Bill and its consequences:

“That was the purpose,” said state Rep. Randy Terrill, a Republican from Moore, Okla., who wrote the law that took effect Nov. 1. “It’s attrition through an enforcement approach to solving illegal immigration…”Other than the threat of terrorism, illegal immigration may be the biggest threat facing this nation,” Terrill said. “The future of the republic may depend on it.”

And reluctantly acknowledge:

Oklahoma’s anti-immigration crackdown has been wildly popular in polls since the legislation sailed through the state’s Republican-dominated legislature.

Most of the rest of the article is spent retailing emotional stories about how much the law is frightening/upsetting/inconveniencing local Hispanics.

Of course, if you set about stealing a country by migration, do you really have grounds for complaint if the inhabitants object? And why should yours be more important than the feelings of the native born, seeing their living standards eroded and their neighborhoods turned into Spanish speaking slums?

Ask Todd Jones

Congratulate Randy Terrill, an authentic Patriotic Hero