The Brown Swan
My critique in VDARE.com of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s bestseller “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” tries to walk the delicate line of giving the book credit while explaining some of the ways it will be misinterpreted — especially its title phrase.
In From Dawn to Decadence, 94-year-old historian Jacques Barzun offered a dozen dictums on pp. 655-656 from what he’s learned from three quarters of a century of scholarship. One was:
“The potent writings that helped to reshape minds and institutions in the West have done so through a formula or two, not always consistent with the text. Partisans and scholars start to read the book with care after it has done its work.”
(By the way, this is certainly true of Barack Obama’s autobiography, which has “done its work” without being carefully read!)
I would emphasize, that in my opinion the Black Swan is a timely rationalization for the gross incompetence seen across finance (both the more private part and their governmental overseers) regarding very predictable events. That is, it is wrong in principal, because, and as you state, the disaster(s) should have been expected (or rather, the ‘black swan’ event would have been loaning to bad credit risks and having them actually paying the loans back, not the other way around).
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